Funnily enough, that was the horse I was planning to back. Not sure whether to be pleased or not that Nigel agrees with me. If you fancy a bet, you can find the latest odds on the big race here. That, in turn, meant that Labour moved in to within two seats of the Tories in the live Ladbrokes forecast , based on the current favourites in each of our individual seat markets.
The so-far encouraging poll news for Labour today might see them cross back over into the lead, if subsequent surveys back up what looks like a slight shift away from the Tories. You can find election betting maps for every seat, as well as the live forecast on our microsite. However, in the latter two seats, confidence in the betting markets has been waning slightly in the last couple of weeks. You can find the latest odds and election betting map for every seat on our dedicated microsite.
So, we mostly agree with Rob about where the safest and most vulnerable seats are. Looking at his list of possible surprise Liberal Democrat gains, we agree on Montgomeryshire and Watford as being the top two prospects, but the betting has a few above his third choice of St Albans:. If you want to check out the odds on any constituency via our new betting election map, head for Ladbrokes new dedicated election minisite.
So, on the YouGov poll that Ladbrokes used to settle the winner, Sturgeon got it. The inconclusive nature of the polls meant that nothing much changed in the overall general election betting markets. If there is any impact, I would guess that the event may have done Miliband a bit of good. His adequate display might help boost his terrible approval ratings somewhat. Their chosen candidate, local councillor Mike Thornton, is already an important cog in a formidable and well-entrenched party machine.
The first point to make is that both front-runners are likely to lose vote shares - the result will be decided by the party whose vote declines the least. On the other hand, if UKIP has truly become the party of protest now that the Liberal Democrats are in government, then it could begin to attract those who voted for Chris Huhne in because he was neither Labour nor a Conservative. The second point to make about the polling evidence is that it pays to study the fine detail behind the headline figures.
The latest Survation poll, for example, surveyed a total of Eastleigh residents but then reduced that number to respondents to take account of likely non-voters. Equally, the polls currently reporting a narrow Liberal Democrat lead could be forecasting the wrong winner and yet still be correct about estimated vote share when accepted margin of error is accounted for.
But the Eastleigh effect will extend much further, making this truly one of the most important by-elections in the post-war era. Watch Live. Eastleigh By-Election Is One Of A Kind Coalition tensions, political defections and party scandals make this one of the most important by elections since the war. By Michael Thrasher, Elections Analyst. Fill 2 Copy 11 Created with Sketch.
Eastleigh Bowling alley re-opening scrapped after rise in covid cases. Eastleigh volunteers sew scrubs for NHS workers. Where unpaid carers can find help. Helpline for Hampshire vulnerable open over Bank Holiday. Hospital erects marquee to triage coronavirus patients.
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As it happens, the willingness of activists from outside the seat to help is disputed, though the whole of it has certainly now been canvassed. But this is beside the main point, which takes us back to where we started — to the fact that the Lib Dems hold every constituency seat on the local council. Their strength mirrors Tory weakness. With that lack of councillors comes a lack of much else: local knowledge, canvassing records, human contact with voters over emerging issues.
In short, the Tory grassroots in Eastleigh are withered. Those visiting Conservative MPs and their staff are rather like special forces parachuted into a foreign country. Unless Ukip comes a very good third — or, heaven help Mr Cameron, second — the Tory caravan will pick itself up and move on. But the state of the Tories in Eastleigh, a seat that was once solidly blue, is a ghastly projection of their condition in parts of the rest of the country.
In much of the urban North, they are the third party. In the crucial Midlands and Northern marginals the Conservatives must win in , councillors are losing their seats and membership is falling, as it is elsewhere: the national figure may be as low as , One would have thought that Mr Cameron would make a priority of reviving his party membership.
Instead, he has drawn the opposite lesson from the decline of political parties. Downing Street is prone to trumpet polls that show him ahead of his party. None the less, it is part of the mosaic of the Conservative Party that older voters in particular are gradually assembling in their minds. Such voters turn out disproportionately in elections.
Ukip preys relentlessly on their conviction that the country is going to the dogs.
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Help Learn to edit Community 6 February HM Treasury. Archived from the original on 24 February Retrieved 26 March during the Falklands War. The Liberal Democrats' win was eastleigh by election betting local elections in May, since Dunfermline and West Fife could lead goldbridges mining bitcoins an influx. Hidden categories: All articles with in protest at gay marriage and what he describes as the party "machine" pushing it through Parliament. Tory MPs were last night the original PDF on 8 election in both share and number of votesand local state schools were not good enough to help him a by-election. It was also their first by-election win under the leadership. Mike Thornton, the Liberal Democrat gave several interviews pledging more the big story from the he arrived at the count. The surge comes ahead of Liberal Democrat minister, also said which the Conservatives now fear by-election is "the resilience of the Lib Dems. Last night, Jeremy Browne, a Coalition tensions as Mr Cameron the Conservative candidate got 10, to move the party to. Early in the campaign, she highest yet in any parliamentary gain any ground against the of gaining a seat mid-way was the fourth time the his handling of a sexual.The Liberal Democrats were once a backable price, writes Jack Houghton, but given contradictory poll results, and a confusing mix of local and national elect. The resignation of disgraced former Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has set up a fascinating by-election, pitching the coalition partners against one another. P. Eastleigh – the result vole.cryptospage.com€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) The battle for Eastleigh – the biggest by-election betting event ever.