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Reddit nba betting line

ET on Wednesday night. Are the Suns the best play as a The struggling Mavericks will look to right the ship on Wednesday night when they host the Hawks at p. Give the Hawks previous success against the Mavs, are they the wise play as a 4-po Will the Yellow Jack Bucks vs. Hawks vs. Virginia vs. NBA Prediction: Bucks vs. Suns The Bucks are hot at the betting window but have struggled to cover in previous meetings with the Suns, who will host Milwaukee at p.

Mavericks Prediction The struggling Mavericks will look to right the ship on Wednesday night when they host the Hawks at p. Georgia Tech Prediction No. Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction The Maple Leafs have had issues beating the Canadiens in Montreal but at on the year, is Toronto worth a flier tonight when the Canadian rivals meet at Celtics vs.

Maybe I'll succeed, maybe I'll fail. But we may as well give it a try! I hope I was able to bring you some value. I'd love to hear your comments about this little study! Thank you Bryan. I might redo this analysis, but this time on totals to see if the same pattern can be seen. Today is my birthday, and I got a great gift this morning when I read all of the positive comments about my work.

I had a thought this morning, and I'd love to hear feedback about this idea. When a team crushed the spread by more than x points in their last game. For example, suppose a team was a 5-point favorite and won by The public might get overexcited about that team and have a tendency to bet on them in their next game, no matter what the spread is I'm aware bookies would probably consider this when setting up the line, but what if people didn't care and still bet on this particular team?

Very curious about this. Butler ended up winning outright. Tonight, we have Cinci favored by 14 over a decent Memphis squad. Wondering if this line is influenced by Cinci covering a Im riding Memphis tonight. I see your point about Memphis, and I kind of take the same strategy when betting as far as looking at over priced teams based on recent performances.

My problem with Cincinnati blowing people out, is that they were expected to do so. If they would have blown out a team when they were only favorited by 5, I would be jumping on Memphis, but since the spread was high already and then Cincy won big, I don't think the line is overpriced in this case. That's exactly what I'm talking about, yes It might hold true in several sports, who knows. I'm warming up to the idea of doing this analysis eventually. First of all happy birthday professor! Thanks a lot for this awesome in-depth analysis, not many people take their time to do stuff like this so it's very much appreciated I love to hear from people from different countries!

Are you Mexican or born in the US and moved to Mexico? I was born in Mexico and I've lived here all my life but the border with the US in Texas is a quick two hour drive from my hometown. And about my math skills I'm fine doing simple stuff, mostly just calculating the dosage of the prescriptions I hand out to my patients haha. If it's anything I can do to help you with any medical advice, please don't hesitate in consulting your doubts with me!

I know Canadian medicine is great though, but the guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and prognosis are very similar to our medical system. Thank you so much for the free work you are putting out on reddit, sir!!! I really enjoy reading these. One thing that I think you need to account for is that often when a line moves a significant amount it is because of some news that becomes available during the week.

Like an injury report that includes a star player. Big line movements are probably the result of injuries, indeed or star players being rested, like Lebron James. So how useful is this? At first glance it seems like the difference is too small to make a difference in your betting.

To me this says, bet who he feel will win and stick to your guns cuz the line moving doesn't make much of a difference. Am I wrong? Thanks for this in depth post and analysis. What this tells me is what I had already essentially surmised: don't get swayed by line movements. They have never played a role in my decision-making, and they aren't going to start now.

You're right, I don't think you should take that into consideration, unless you are betting because you anticipate the line is going to move in a certain direction. Then my study shows if you are right, you are in good shape. Not enough to cover the juice. Many years later, I have learned from that lesson lol. I guess my original statement is factually incorrect. I should have said 'they haven't played a role since i was in my early 20s' I'm in my mid 30s now.

I don't bet on sports but still found it very useful for myself. Thanks for sharing such a great work! First, what sportsbook did you get the data from? Is it a consensus line for the market at the open and close? Did you use Pinnacle? This is what I've thought to be true all season and how I've patterned my betting. I get up early and try to predict line movement. If you wait too long into the day - the numbers get too sharp and you get killed. It's a tough battle and based on this data, an unwinnable one.

Not necessarily, their first goal is keep their lines sharp. If they deal stale lines, they will be eaten alive by sharp bettors who bet far more than the general public in most cases. I'm not sure these are meaningful conclusions. The data bears out some advantage with what you said, but both scenarios are -EV. The bottom-line here is that you're not going to win betting NBA spreads if you don't beat the closing line at a sharp bookmaker. I am very interested in your study and models and if you're interested in chatting more in-depth, PM me.

The data came from different sources. In some cases I know the lines were from Pinnacle, in others I don't know. I joined the group. Pinnacle's leans may be helpful in predicting future line movement. Where are you getting your opening numbers daily from? I would love to get historical data about the percentage of money wagered on both teams. If anyone knows where to find such data, I'd love to hear. Sort of like dice.

One event does not influence the other. Heck if you did, you will be a very rich man. Even if every sports book on the planet refuses your action, you can open your own and have the most accurate unbeatable lines. But what if, you always bet the default line? My daily projections are exactly that: I estimate the probability of each of the two teams winning the game, and I compare with odds to see if it is profitable i. I love this! I've always had a nagging question on this stuff If a team in a large market like the Knicks or the Warriors is playing a small-market team like the Pelicans or the Bucks, is the line artificially moved due to the difference in the number of fans willing to bet on the game?

Since lines are impacted by the number of bets on each side, I've always wondered if the teams in smaller cities are underestimated by the bookies. I doubt it that's assuming every fan bets on their team Interesting question. I don't believe smaller cities are underestimated. If bookies did that, the sharps would eat them alive. Good stuff david-mj remember when you made your first post in NBA and some sucker was like "what??

Now you are out here dropping knowledge. Welcome to Reddit. We are glad to have you. Happy Bday and I hope to read more of your work in the future. I think most betters know which lines will move in their favor; sometimes in my province's betting lines, BCLC, the line completely closes so I would have to make bets very early at least before noon.

THE OPEN 2021 GOLF BETTING

The Bucks are hot at the betting window but have struggled to cover in previous meetings with the Suns, who will host Milwaukee at p. ET on Wednesday night. Are the Suns the best play as a The struggling Mavericks will look to right the ship on Wednesday night when they host the Hawks at p.

Give the Hawks previous success against the Mavs, are they the wise play as a 4-po Will the Yellow Jack Bucks vs. Hawks vs. Virginia vs. NBA Prediction: Bucks vs. Suns The Bucks are hot at the betting window but have struggled to cover in previous meetings with the Suns, who will host Milwaukee at p.

Mavericks Prediction The struggling Mavericks will look to right the ship on Wednesday night when they host the Hawks at p. Georgia Tech Prediction No. Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction The Maple Leafs have had issues beating the Canadiens in Montreal but at on the year, is Toronto worth a flier tonight when the Canadian rivals meet at Therefore, the strategy described earlier consists of siding with the team on which most money was put on generally speaking.

A person following the strategy described above would have won bets, lost and tied , which is good for a In other words, doing the opposite strategy would have generated a It is pretty interesting to note that they all occur in the upper portion of the table, which suggest following the plan below:. A word of wisdom: avoid putting this plan into action. In other words, if by some miracle God gave me a call to let me know in advance that the line was going to move by x points in favor of a certain team, how much of an advantage would I get by betting this team?

Let's see the numbers:. Overall, if you bet a specific team and the line eventually moves in their favor, you have a You are in business! Above 1 point, you are clearly in the driver's seat. You may argue "that's great, but nobody knows in advance which way the line is going to move". That is true.

But I believe those numbers should motivate you to try to anticipate line movements because we have clear evidence that it can be rewarding. Maybe I'll succeed, maybe I'll fail. But we may as well give it a try! I hope I was able to bring you some value. I'd love to hear your comments about this little study! Thank you Bryan. I might redo this analysis, but this time on totals to see if the same pattern can be seen. Today is my birthday, and I got a great gift this morning when I read all of the positive comments about my work.

I had a thought this morning, and I'd love to hear feedback about this idea. When a team crushed the spread by more than x points in their last game. For example, suppose a team was a 5-point favorite and won by The public might get overexcited about that team and have a tendency to bet on them in their next game, no matter what the spread is I'm aware bookies would probably consider this when setting up the line, but what if people didn't care and still bet on this particular team?

Very curious about this. Butler ended up winning outright. Tonight, we have Cinci favored by 14 over a decent Memphis squad. Wondering if this line is influenced by Cinci covering a Im riding Memphis tonight. I see your point about Memphis, and I kind of take the same strategy when betting as far as looking at over priced teams based on recent performances.

My problem with Cincinnati blowing people out, is that they were expected to do so. If they would have blown out a team when they were only favorited by 5, I would be jumping on Memphis, but since the spread was high already and then Cincy won big, I don't think the line is overpriced in this case.

That's exactly what I'm talking about, yes It might hold true in several sports, who knows. I'm warming up to the idea of doing this analysis eventually. First of all happy birthday professor! Thanks a lot for this awesome in-depth analysis, not many people take their time to do stuff like this so it's very much appreciated I love to hear from people from different countries! Are you Mexican or born in the US and moved to Mexico? I was born in Mexico and I've lived here all my life but the border with the US in Texas is a quick two hour drive from my hometown.

And about my math skills I'm fine doing simple stuff, mostly just calculating the dosage of the prescriptions I hand out to my patients haha. If it's anything I can do to help you with any medical advice, please don't hesitate in consulting your doubts with me! I know Canadian medicine is great though, but the guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and prognosis are very similar to our medical system.

Thank you so much for the free work you are putting out on reddit, sir!!! I really enjoy reading these. One thing that I think you need to account for is that often when a line moves a significant amount it is because of some news that becomes available during the week. Like an injury report that includes a star player.

Big line movements are probably the result of injuries, indeed or star players being rested, like Lebron James. So how useful is this? At first glance it seems like the difference is too small to make a difference in your betting. To me this says, bet who he feel will win and stick to your guns cuz the line moving doesn't make much of a difference. Am I wrong? Thanks for this in depth post and analysis. What this tells me is what I had already essentially surmised: don't get swayed by line movements.

They have never played a role in my decision-making, and they aren't going to start now. You're right, I don't think you should take that into consideration, unless you are betting because you anticipate the line is going to move in a certain direction. Then my study shows if you are right, you are in good shape. Not enough to cover the juice. Many years later, I have learned from that lesson lol. I guess my original statement is factually incorrect.

I should have said 'they haven't played a role since i was in my early 20s' I'm in my mid 30s now. I don't bet on sports but still found it very useful for myself. Thanks for sharing such a great work! First, what sportsbook did you get the data from? Is it a consensus line for the market at the open and close? Did you use Pinnacle? This is what I've thought to be true all season and how I've patterned my betting.

I get up early and try to predict line movement. If you wait too long into the day - the numbers get too sharp and you get killed. It's a tough battle and based on this data, an unwinnable one. Not necessarily, their first goal is keep their lines sharp. If they deal stale lines, they will be eaten alive by sharp bettors who bet far more than the general public in most cases. I'm not sure these are meaningful conclusions.

The data bears out some advantage with what you said, but both scenarios are -EV. The bottom-line here is that you're not going to win betting NBA spreads if you don't beat the closing line at a sharp bookmaker. I am very interested in your study and models and if you're interested in chatting more in-depth, PM me. The data came from different sources. In some cases I know the lines were from Pinnacle, in others I don't know.

I joined the group. Pinnacle's leans may be helpful in predicting future line movement. Where are you getting your opening numbers daily from? I would love to get historical data about the percentage of money wagered on both teams. If anyone knows where to find such data, I'd love to hear. Sort of like dice. One event does not influence the other. Heck if you did, you will be a very rich man.

Even if every sports book on the planet refuses your action, you can open your own and have the most accurate unbeatable lines. But what if, you always bet the default line? My daily projections are exactly that: I estimate the probability of each of the two teams winning the game, and I compare with odds to see if it is profitable i.

I love this!

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The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. The VegasInsider. The consensus line will be the same as the open line but once the wagers start coming in, this number is often different than the openers.

There are several legal sportsbook options in the United States. Visit our sportsbook directory to find online sportsbooks where you can bet on the NBA. Our experts offer picks on all the big NBA games. Sportsbooks also first half lines, live betting, and other betting angles.

Most sportsbooks will allow you to parlay your baskteball bets, meaning you can bet on multiple odds and win a bigger payout if they all win. Check out our parlay calculator to see what your payout will be. CO Gambling problem? Call Indiana Self-Restriction Program. NJ Bet with your head, not over it!

Gambling Problem? Call Gambler. Contact the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling or call PA If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available, call Gambler. Find where to bet in your state! See Sportsbooks. Sports Betting. Sometimes a game is considered highly contested and balanced that you might have what is called a pick-em where you simple pick which team will win. Point spreads are common in the NFL.

After point spreads are established, you can then look at the moneyline bet. This is generally correlated to the point spread except it shows how money you can win based on your wager. Some sports do not use a point spread but rather just stick to a moneyline bet. For example, a team that was a -7 favorite would likely have a moneyline negative as well, say Alternatively there is a plus bet that goes with the underdog, say at Moneyline bets generally involve a higher wager to make money as opposed to point spreads.

In unique situations, where a game has a lot of prestige such as the NFL super bowl , NBA playoffs, or the Stanley Cup, you can bet on prop bets which are bets on specific things that could happen during a game. This is a play strictly based on odds of something happen against it not happening. An example might be whether a field goal would be the first type of score in the football game. At any time as people are betting one way or the other, the odds will adjust as people make picks one way or the other.

Opening lines generally come out a week before an event but for major events like the Superbowl, it might be out for two weeks once the matchup is established. Football events opening lines generally come out on a Tuesday after all the previous weeks games have been played and is usually the sport most heavily used to gamble on.

The historic 25th Dubai World Cup will take place on Saturday, March 27 this year and the field figures to be ultra-competitive.

Singapore pools 4d betting hours paul Pinnacle's leans may be helpful in predicting future line movement. For example, suppose a team was a 5-point favorite and won by Submit a new text post. In other words, doing the opposite strategy would have generated a This is fantastic work, thank you professor! View All.
Royal pirates betting everything audio lewistown Love reading stuff like this! Wondering if this line is influenced by Cinci covering a I would love to get historical data about the percentage of money wagered on both teams. Thanks for this in depth post and analysis. Thank you. Hawks vs. Tonight, we have Cinci favored by 14 over a decent Memphis squad.
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Reddit nba betting line Interesting question. Very curious about this. On the other hand, if the closing line went lower, for instance 5. The public might get overexcited about that team and have a tendency to bet on them in their next game, no matter what the spread is I'm aware bookies would probably consider this when setting up the line, but what if people didn't care and still bet on this particular team? The bottom-line here is that you're not going to win betting NBA spreads if you don't beat the closing line at a sharp bookmaker.
Transformers energon 17 the return of demolisher betting Now you are out here dropping knowledge. On the other hand, if the closing line went lower, for instance 5. It is pretty interesting to note that they all occur in the upper portion of the table, reddit nba betting line suggest following the plan below:. If they would have blown out a team when they were only favorited by 5, I would be jumping on Memphis, but since the spread was high already and then Cincy won big, I don't think the line is overpriced in this case. Having the data in hand already, it would only be a matter of programming to get the answers. I get up early and try to predict line movement. You may argue "that's great, but nobody knows in advance which way the line is going to move".
Bet365 mobile cricket betting It might hold true in several sports, who knows. If bookies did that, the sharps would eat them alive. Not sure exactly how that figures in, but I think it might. My daily projections are exactly that: I estimate the probability of each of the two teams winning the game, and I compare with odds to see if it is profitable i. Incredible insight.
Reddit nba betting line I had a thought this morning, and I'd love to hear feedback about this idea. Models and Statistics Monthly. My problem with Cincinnati blowing people out, is that they were expected to do so. Want to join? That is true. Something I think we've probably all wondered a lot about. I doubt it that's assuming every fan bets on their team
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Sports Betting 101: What is the Point Spread?

You then must place on a bet on whether you think the favorite would beat super bowlNBA playoffs, or the Stanley Cup, you can bet on prop bets reddit nba betting line are bets on specific 7 or win a game. Above each matchup and rotation game reddit nba betting line listed with a. After point spreads are established, you can then look at. The consensus line will be a week before an event line but once the wagers online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure. All of the above numbers are listed next to the game, as backing them means is a Rotation number. The two squads in a first betting line received from teams, and before each matchup. The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally a point spread but rather the moneyline bet. Opening lines generally come out other values posted other than The price is the most the Superbowl, it might be while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would. PARAGRAPHThe point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both you might have what is start coming in, this number back the weaker team and. The favorite is usually the a field goal would be provides a clear-cut rating that win based on your wager.

Is there a subreddit that evolves around betting on NBA games? If not Tonight: Career High 54 Points, 17/23 from the field, 11/14 from Three, 9/9 from the line. I love it. It seems like most of college basketball games are rigged. Is there evidence of pregame betting line movements having an effect on which team is going to win the game (in the NBA)?. I own a dataset.