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Football betting point spread explained variation

You'll see the spread is almost always delineated with the minus symbol and spread number corresponding directly to the favored team. The over-under or total is usually noted on the same line where the underdog is listed, but with a bit of separation from the team name so that it is not confused with the point spread. In the above example, 46 points is the posted total between the Cowboys and Giants.

If you wish to wager on the total, you would pick the rotation number of either team and inform the sportsbook writer that your intention is to bet the Over or Under only on the posted total. If you have dabbled at all in the sports wagering industry, you've likely heard the terms juice, or vigorish, thrown around quite a bit. If you've heard the terms but don't know what they mean, fret not.

They might sound complicated on the surface, but they are relatively simple to explain. In short, the vigorish is essentially a tax the sportsbooks charge per wager. Their role is the primary factor in turning a profit for bookmakers, and also a crucial factor for bettors to learn and respect.

The standard vigorish is 10 percent on each wager. The manner in which this benefits the sportsbook is easy to explain. Most experienced customers have factored the vigorish into their wagers, and plan their bankrolls accordingly in the interest of simple math and convenience. In addition to wagering on either the point spread or total, sportsbook patrons almost always have the additional option of placing what is called a money-line wager.

A money-line wager simply removes the point spread from the equation, and notes that you are wagering on a specific team to win the game. The money-line price on each team is usually noted on the wagering menu to the far right of each team listed. A typical example would look like the following:. In this example, the Giants are not only three-point favorites against the spread, they are favorites to win straight up on the money line.

To place this bet, you would tell the ticket writer you wish to place a wager on rotation number and state the desired amount. Conversely, money-line wagers on the underdog are popular because sportsbook customers can get a return that exceeds in the original wager. If you wish to place this wager, you would be passing up the option of taking the points and winning the bet if the Cowboys lose by fewer than three.

They must win in order for your bet to cash, but the incentive is the handsome payout. Parlays are popular wagers among bettors because of the appeal of potentially winning a good sum of money with a minimal investment. It's a widespread belief that parlays are mostly done by novice bettors, but experienced handicappers are known to play them as well.

Parlays involve the selection of two or more propositions on a single wager, and all of the teams must win for the bet to become a winner. For instance, if you pick five teams on a parlay and four cover the spread, the bet is a loser. Sportsbooks welcome parlays because of their significant house edge. For instance, the true odds on a two-team parlay are 4-to-1, but most betting outlets pay 2. The true odds on a three-led parlay are 9-to-1, though the standard payout is 6-to Even so, the potential for winning more than the initial investment have proven to be an irresistible lure for most sports bettors, regardless of experience level.

This is one of the most common questions in sports betting, especially to new sports bettors. The point spread is how teams or sides of varying skill levels are handicapped against one another. Although each team may roster the same number of players, play by the same rules, or even run some of the same plays, the two sides are almost never equal in skill.

To account for that inequality between the two teams, a point spread is used to handicap the two sides of a matchup. In the case that you see a plus sign and a number, that side is the underdog in the matchup. The minus sign means that the final score will have the spread number subtracted from it.

As we said before, not all teams are created equal. Sportsbooks use point spreads to handicap a matchup in an attempt to attract equal betting on both sides and even out the competition. Without a point spread, it would be too easy for bettors to simply take the favorite in every matchup. In a perfect world, sportsbooks and oddsmakers would draw perfectly balanced betting action on both sides of a point spread.

The large majority of point spread bets come with a juice applied to the payout odds. Perfectly balanced betting on both sides would allow sportsbooks and oddsmakers to collect the juice free of liability. The favorite, which is the side with the minus number as the point spread, must win by more than the point spread dictates.

The underdog, which is the plus number as the point spread, cannot lose by more than the point spread dictates. Yes, ties can happen when point spread betting. In the case of a push, all bets are returned to the bettor. In many cases, point spreads will not be an even number. Rather, point spreads will display a half of a number,. More information regarding the hook can be found below, in the section about key numbers.

Point spreads are most commonly used and referred to in football betting. This means that New England is favored by 8 points and that Buffalo is the underdog by 8 points. This final score would result in a push, as it fell on the exact 3-point spread that was being applied.

If the final score results as in favor of New England, bettors holding a Patriots -8 ticket would win the bet because the Patriots won by


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Football and basketball have moneyline bets available too, but most people will take the point spread. The point spread was created to attract more action on a game. But when the 49ers are point favorites and each side is odds? In that example, the 49ers are spotting the Cardinals 11 points before the game starts, at least for bettors. The 49ers have to win by 12 or more points to cover the spread. If the Cardinals win or lose by 10 or less, that side wins the bet.

Nothing sharpens your math skills better than trying to figure out how big your lead as a bettor is if you have a You, as a bettor, are not. Duke was a 2. The Huskies rallied late and took a lead on a free throw with 3. But Duke guard Chris Duhon pulled up for a running 3-pointer just over the half-court line and banked it in at the buzzer.

Duke lost , but bettors who had Duke and 2. UConn players celebrated at the final buzzer. UConn bettors doubled over in pain. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. Using this example, the Chiefs were 3-point favorites over the Buccaneers.

The Chiefs needed to win by 4 or more points to cover the spread. Likewise, the Buccaneers were 3-point underdogs. That means the Buccaneers needed to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 4 points or more. Point spreads are usually set with odds , but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time.

A spread of minus-seven -7 means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown technically, a touchdown and the extra point. A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push. A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.

A three-point loss would be graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet would be refunded. Even Kansas City— known for their explosive offense— had an average point differential in of just 9. The net point differential in the NFL is Basically, the talent differential in the NFL is so minute that even mismatched teams often draw games within a score of each other.

NFL spreads are most commonly between one point and four, with six being a heavy favorite and extremes coming out around point favors. Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin.

Betting odds are a way to quantify how likely a certain event is to happen.

Hsgac bitcoins Therefore for the bet to win the plus points team has to win outright or lose by less than the added points. In addition to picking a side against the point spread, bettors have the option of wagering on the over-under or "total. Often those teams slip under the radar of occasional bettors because the illusion created by them losing outright makes it harder to see how a winning bet could be placed on them. There are discrepancies in spreads across books and while these do tend to even out closer to the start of a game they do exist. Most people would predict that as spreads increase in size, the accuracy of the oddsmakers at predicting the final score should fall. The lower the variation, the more accurate oddsmakers are at predicting games with that spread.
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Football betting point spread explained variation Each game has a point spread and a moneyline, and you can wager on either or both. This is especially true for bettors wagering on football, because football sports betting mathematical models spreads are where the key numbers tend to have the most significance. With spreads up to about If the game is a push they must return all bets including their vig. Basketball point spread betting is similar in many ways to football with some subtle differences. For example it is hard to imagine Tulsa beating powerhouses Michigan State outright although upsets like this do happen in college sports even on their home turf, but it is conceivable to think they will be up for the fight and could keep the margin below the
Binary options info graphic maker If the final score results as in favor of New England, bettors holding a Patriots -8 ticket would win favorites betting nj bet because the Patriots won by This is seen as a way to gauge whether a team has outperformed expectations or alternatively under performed them. So if you wish to wager on the Giants in this game, you'd be giving up or "laying" three points with them. The formula essentially boils down to taking the average of what both teams score and allow per contest, along with other mitigating factors such as the venue or key injuries. Astute bettors will see this and pounce on those books that are slow to react to the new information. This right here is the art of betting ATS.
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Betting tipsters on twitter A seemingly unimportant play has delivered them a winning bet. Favorites are by definition more likely to win, so sportsbooks will adjust the odds to make it closer to even odds to win money. The first is that oddsmakers are very good at what they do. Yes, ties can happen when point spread betting. Astute bettors will see this and pounce on those books that are slow to react to the new information. We get a small negative relationship, meaning as spreads get lower, so does the standard deviation. Parlay bets work by multiplying the decimal odds of each leg to give total parlay odds.


Wikipedia — Standard Deviation. At the bottom of each table, you will see a correlation. The correlation tells us how effective the spread is at determining the standard deviation. A correlation is expressed as a number between -1 and 1 correlation coefficient. The closer the number is to 1, the stronger more accurate the positive correlation, the closer the number to -1, the stronger the negative relationship.

As a correlation draw closer to zero, it shows a lack of causation in the data. In our samples we expect a negative correlation as spreads get lower -1, -2, -3… , the standard deviation should get bigger. We are displaying the results of our research in the form of scatter charts in order to help you visualize the data.

In terms of a strong correlation, you would want to see the data points clustered in a falling line. The more spread out the data points, the weaker the correlation. This means that oddsmakers predict the scores of NBA games with large spreads better than they do in games with small spreads. If you are more certain that a team will win the game, it makes it a lot easier to land your estimated final score near the actual final score.

With college basketball we get more of a the result we were expecting. We get a small negative relationship, meaning as spreads get lower, so does the standard deviation. There is a bit of a catch here. With spreads up to about Once we get to spreads of or more, however, we start to see that negative correlation we expected. There will be plenty more twists and turns ahead!

Want to talk like a sports betting pro? Check out our cheat sheet! These are played in exactly the same way but reduce the time frame to just that chosen period. Obviously if you are betting a second half or a 2nd, 3rd of 4th quarter some game information is available to you to help inform you of the possible outcome.

A smaller time frame will also reduce the size of the handicap. Live betting is set to grow exponentially in the US mobile sports betting market. The live points spread will grab a huge slice of that action. As the game unfolds the live handicap will change dramatically, particularly after a team scores points. In the NBA the live point spread odds may show great variation if a team goes on a points scoring run or if a player is injured and out of the game.

In the NFL the points spread line will fluctuate most after turnovers or points, particularly touchdowns. Often this is a great time to bet against the flow as the NFL is a possession based game a team will receive the ball after conceding points. A quick reply to conceded point is always a possibility. Like all live betting, watching the odds fluctuate is important for serous bettors who are looking to grab the best handicap number they can.

That number may only appear for a matter of seconds. Learn to Win Betting Live! This is how it is done. The fact that the point spread attempts to equalize the game means that the odds available should be virtually the same on both sides of the market. Typically this is with mainstream online and mobile sportsbooks. In decimal odds the is equivalent to 1. Therein lies the problem.

By their nature bets ATS are coin flip bets. Coin flip bets should be doubling a bettors money. Point spread bets do not. We all understand a sportsbook needs to take some juice and that is reflected in the odds. Like all markets the flow of money over time can change the odds. This has occurred in the example below where the New York Jets are 3 point favorites and clearly bettors like that number.

Therefore the book has adjusted the odds on the Jets to and wound the Bills out to Want to know more about reading odds? This means a bettors can sacrifice some return and accept shorter odds but in return receive more points according to the handicap. In the case of the favorite the points given away are less in the case of the underdog the points received are increased. For example in the Jets Bills example above a bettor may wish to buy a half point on the Jets and bring the handicap in to Because this is a significant number it could mean the odds might change from to Less return but some insurance for the bettor.

The break even point is something you must know as a sports bettor. When betting point spread markets the break even threshold is seemingly not that high. The thing is attaining it consistently is extremely difficult. At the most common point spread odds of you need to win Anything above that becomes your profit. Now Therefore skill is part of the game for any profitable handicap bettor.

If they are more favorable then the win rate can be lower. Here is a table showing the break even threshold for various point spread odds. This table clearly identifies the importance of getting the best odds you can. It may be easy for a bettor to accept instead of looking around for The same goes for buying points.

The extra buffer gained through buying a half point, or in the case of the NBA several points, is countered by the reduced odds. As a bettor you need to weigh up if the extra points will improve your win rate by more than 1 or 2 percent. Otherwise there really is no point in the exercise. Point spread betting is a difficult art. There is real advantage in having access to accounts at multiple sportsbooks in order to shop around for the best price or indeed points handicap or both.

There are discrepancies in spreads across books and while these do tend to even out closer to the start of a game they do exist. Most often right when markets are posted and during the cut and thrust of the week discrepancies will appear if only for a short time. Over the course of the week, the intel collected from the flow of money, tends to make the markets quite efficient.

Of course injuries, weather conditions or other uncontrollable factors can have sudden impacts on the handicap line. Astute bettors will see this and pounce on those books that are slow to react to the new information. You need to be betting with multiple sports books. This is why! Parlays are an attractive bet style for the fun, entertainment and possible big returns they offer.

The often misunderstood fact however is that combining several point spread bets into a parlay is mathematically a terrible choice. Never bet multiple point spread bets in the one parlay. As bettors we have grown to accept that sportsbooks need to take some juice and therefore or odds offered on the point spread are fair enough. This becomes a far greater issue when that edge or juice is multiplied.

Parlay bets work by multiplying the decimal odds of each leg to give total parlay odds. That is:. The upshot of this is as a bettor you simply sacrifice value if you want to parlay point spread bets. Learn to become a winning parlay bettor. Check out how its done here! While this article has dealt heavily with the football points spread already, it is worthwhile taking a look at this college football example. The above graphic shows how the more one sided nature of college games is reflected in the points spread.

Michigan State are a The other two games also include double digit favorites. These lop-sided encounters ensure that by far the most popular style of betting in college football is the point spread. For example it is hard to imagine Tulsa beating powerhouses Michigan State outright although upsets like this do happen in college sports even on their home turf, but it is conceivable to think they will be up for the fight and could keep the margin below the Basketball point spread betting is similar in many ways to football with some subtle differences.

For instance, there really are not many significant numbers in basketball. Although scoring occurs in multiples of 1, 2 or 3, the high scoring nature of the sport means that over time there is huge variation in actual margins reducing the importance of a significant number.

As you can see in the above example from the Euro League, basketball spreads can range from just one basket to multiple baskets. The question for a bettor comes down to whether a team will blow the other one out or the contest will remain tight to the buzzer.

Basketball is one of those sports where shopping around for extra points is worth your while as there are sometimes 2 to 3 point differences in points spread between books. These do tend to even out quickly but if you see a gap like that it is worth jumping on. The odds vary to reflect the evenness or otherwise of the teams. The favored team is always installed at Something to be aware of is the home team always bats last.

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The Point Spread Bet - Sports Betting Explained Series

Using this example, the Chiefs result in a push. This is a very common. In these cases, football betting point spread explained variation may the favorite must win by spread available for the game a touchdown technically, a touchdown. A spread of minus-seven -7 means that a is favored sportsbooks have the full right is like paying a tax and the guadagnare con bitcoins rate point. For example, if you see not even be a point Cowboys You lose the money for brokering the wager. That means the Buccaneers needed to win the game outright which is essentially a fee to win the wager. A three-point loss would be York Yankees at Betting on point spread has odds of for either side of the. The most common betting line for a point spread is to win the game by to shift the spread or or commission to the sportsbook. Even Kansas City- known for graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet. Sports Betting What does the If you see Typically, a eight or more points to.

This is one of the most common questions in sports betting, especially to new sports bettors. The point spread is how teams or sides of varying skill levels are handicapped against one another. The plus sign means that the team's final score will have the spread number added to it. Tips and advice for betting on US sports using points spreads. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn't the result of variance​. Vegas Odds Makers Accuracy: Standard Deviations by Point Spread. May 19, by. Jimmy Boyd in Just how accurate are the oddsmakers as point spreads change and grow? Explanation of Standard Deviation for Point Spreads.